10 State Council announced the newly revised "Provisional Regulations on Resource Tax of the PRC," the decision from 11 January to the resource tax reform to the country. After the announcement, A-share market the coal sector appear to fall, to some extent offset by holdings of gold to bring the good exchange. But in the long run, the resource tax reform will be Forced to adjust China's industrial structure, is more conducive to economic fundamentals are healthy.
Resource tax reform is difficult to influence the general trend of falling inflation
China's resource tax reform is the main direction of change from the amount levied ad valorem. In June 2010 the first pilot in Xinjiang crude oil and natural gas resources tax ad valorem, the rate of 5%, then the end of 2010 to further expand in the 12 western provinces.
Analysts believe that the resource tax in the fourth quarter of this year extended to the country, point in time as expected, but oil and gas resources tax to finalize the 5-10% rate, slightly higher than expected. Calculated in accordance with Galaxy Securities, the Brent crude oil price is 110 U.S. dollars / barrel in the case, domestic oil prices around $ 100 / barrel, even the minimum standards of oil and gas resources tax of 5% calculated with reference to last year's production, will Shi New resource tax in the oil over $ 20 billion, Sinopec new resources tax exceeds 8.0 billion.
Jia Kang, director of the Institute of Fiscal Science, has pointed out, do not expect to increase the tax burden on the resources in the development of links is completely absorbed. In a competitive situation may absorb part of the development enterprise, but there will be a part of the transfer, allocated to the middle and lower reaches, and it is this transmission mechanism, so that we cherish the use of resources related to the subject in every possible way to stimulate the development of energy saving processes, technologies and products.
Although the resource tax reform will be pushed to a certain extent, resources, product prices, thus adding to inflationary pressures. But some analysts have pointed out that the resource tax reform to the country at this time, in itself implies that inflation control.
According to a number of agencies released a report on the September CPI forecast rose 6% to the basic -6.2%, while July, August were 6.5% and 6.2%. "Inflation is past the peak of the fourth quarter will be further down", has become the mainstream of academia and the investment community awareness.
Petrochemical, coal sector performance is very different
Resource tax reform to the country's news, the 11 had a significant impact on the stock market. Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.1% in the case of China Petroleum, Sinopec rose 0.51 percent and were down 0.58%, while the coal sector fell 4.58%, Pan River shares, Yangquan Coal industry and other firms have more than 9 percent decline.
Petrochemical, coal plates beyond the performance of different investor expectations: Logically, the crude oil natural gas 5-10% higher than expected tax rate, while the coal industry is expected in 3-5% of the tax rate does not appear, still from the taxable amount of industry is undoubtedly a positive.
Deng Yong Hai Tong Securities analyst believes that although the resource tax reform to the country will increase the burden on oil companies, but in view of 2010, China has begun the implementation of oil and gas resources in the western region tax reform, thus avoiding the impact of a one-time implementation of the oil .
CICC analyst off shore in its research report said, the resource tax reform may also be introduced after a series of national follow-up support measures, such as natural gas pricing mechanism for fine-tuning, special oil income levy threshold increase and so on. These two policies are likely to ease to some extent, resource tax reform on the negative impact of oil company profits.
As for coal, although this still from the taxable amount, but the taxable value, after all, is the way forward. This means that in the long run, the reform of "boots" has not yet landed, and investor sentiment and therefore suppressed.
However, some market participants view, "boots" do not fall off is not important, the key lies in whether the landing point in time the coal companies have the ability to pass costs. For example the resource tax reform, the coking coal from the coal singled out, and tax from 8 yuan / ton raised to 8 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton. Coking coal prices are more vulnerable in the current case, the cost of coking coal companies less able to pass, which led to capital flight.
Protection of scarce resources, taking into account the livelihood of the people consider
The resource tax reform, in addition to oil and gas resources tax from the taxable amount to ad valorem, but also to adjust the special tax on coking coal and rare earth mine standards. In the industry view, which not only protect the scarce resources, but also take into account the livelihood of the people to consider.
Energy Economic Research Center, Xiamen University, said Lin Boqiang, a higher degree of market-oriented coal industry. Coal fields, especially if the implementation of the resource tax reform is bound to cause coal prices. The current thermal power plants in general loss of business, bring unbearable pressure on coal prices. So, not to coal resources for the ad valorem tax reform is justified.
Currently, coal accounts for the proportion of China's energy consumption up to 70%. If coal prices, the inflation pressure is enormous. In the current inflation situation is still grim circumstances, the suspension of coal resources implementation of ad valorem tax reform, reflecting the government's consideration for the people's livelihood.
At the same time, the government specifically for coking coal and rare earth resources tax adjustment reflects the intention to protect scarce resources. For coking coal, for example, although China's abundant coal resources, but coking coal is in short supply. Only in 2010, our country imports more than 40 million tons of coking coal, the industry fear that if left unchecked, the field of raw materials, coking coal will be the second "iron ore."
Analysis of the industry, with the inflation situation under control, varieties of resource tax reform to expand coverage step by step, including coal, but also include other metals and non-metallic mineral products. More manufacturing companies, who can upgrade and will be able to become bigger and stronger. And if you continue to walk the extensive consumption of resource-dependent way, and finally it may be eliminated.
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