China export rate will be significantly weakened

Although China's domestic inflation remains worrisome, but the next 12 months, the biggest risk China's economic growth from the global economic slowdown or recession. UBS Securities on October 10 released a report that warning.

UBS global macroeconomic team believes that the euro zone sovereign debt crisis has entered a more dangerous phase. Subject to financing costs, investor sentiment deteriorated, severe financial constraints and other factors, the euro zone's economic performance will only be slightly better than expected 2012 growth rate of 1%.
This will cause China's exports is quite significant impact. UBS expects the next few months, China's export growth will be significantly weaker. China 2012 GDP growth from net exports will drag more than 1%, and manufacturing investment and consumption generate additional negative effects. China's export growth is expected in 2012 from 12% to 5%.
Reported that the sharp deceleration of exports will likely be the timing of macroeconomic policy began to relax.
UBS economists HU Zhi-peng said that China's exports and industrial production growth has been slowing to a lesser extent, and 6% inflation is still high, at this stage the Government will not relax macro policies.
But with the decline in exports to China increased, the policy may be relaxed in December 2011 or early 2012 the two time points.
By then, policy-makers will observe the changes in export growth and inflation situation. If the Central Economic Work Conference in early December meeting, the European economy is not a big problem, China's exports have not fallen sharply, and policy decisions will be postponed until early next year.
The report predicts that China's consumer price index (CPI) fell in late 2011 to 4%.
Wealth of new media-cum-September 2011, three quarters of Chinese economic data forecast, more than 20 research institutes forecast average CPI for September and August remained flat at 6.2%. Export growth forecast average of 20.2%, higher than in August fell 4.3 percentage points.