"China's economic growth by the time window for high speed transfer speed may have to open in 2012, the most (are) fear uncertainty, namely the European debt crisis, uncertainty, and uncertainty from the real estate market. ”
Economic growth path
In keynote session, Liu Shijin, Ministry of finance section Jia Kang, Director, Asia Pacific Managing Director, JP Morgan Chase J.P. JPMorgan Chinese Investment Bank Vice President Frank Gong, Chief commentator of each leaf, such as Tan, around China as well as the macro separately elaborated on their views to the overall situation of the world economy.
These experts are of the view that China has now entered a new stage of economic development in the past relied on demographic dividend and high investment-led economic growth momentum is gradually declining, "Twelve-Five" period, China needs to find new growth patterns.
Liu Shijin said that in the area of foreign trade, in 2012, China import and export growth could drop below 10% or a little higher level; investment in fixed assets or by 24% per cent to around total amount of social consumer goods financing real growth rose from 12% to the cent is about annual GDP growth of about 8.5%.
He said that China need to transform the dynamics of economic development and towards innovation-driven. To resolve these problems, the reform of greater importance than ever in China.
Jia Kang, expounded his views on fiscal policy: to continue to make a difference in expenditure, spending outline is focused, taking into account the General, the integrated and coordinated. He said, with special emphasis on supporting the object includes the construction of new countryside, including small and micro-enterprises and is closely related to the livelihood of some of the major issues and so on.
He also emphasized that education, must meet the Government's investment in this year 4% per cent of GDP target, new reforms to promote the necessary financial support, fiscal policy should be as focused.
Frank Gong, long-term study of the financial sector believes that China's economy for years to come, "eight" is not a problem, but rely on investment economic growth relies on promotion of consumer services, as well as the so-called creative industries development and refinement of the increased economic development, which is dependent on investment and financing needs change.
He explained that in China, if you do not have bank loans this so-called indirect financing channels, companies even the basic operations are difficult to maintain. So is urgent to develop the capital market in China, many things have to securitization, but also to accelerate the process of securitization.
In the pre-2012 year China and the world economic situation, Tan has maintained her usual cold wisdom. She recalled that in 2011 and 2012 keywords still is the debt crisis, "debt of the world's leading economies that are due in the near future, with BRIC, a total of US $ 7.6 trillion. This means more debt due this year than last year, also shows increasing our debt burden. ”
When referring to the thorny issues facing China, Tan also mentioned the risk of commercial real estate. She said that the end of 2011, many commercial real estate financial returns simply not enough to cover costs, "I believe that 2012 commercial real estate bubble risk will emerge. ”
High-end financial future
At yesterday's annual Conference, published by the daily economic news combined with xinancaijingdaxue the 2011 China's high-end financial market report (hereinafter referred to as the report) pointed out that as economic uncertainty and risk awareness grows, good prospects for future high-end financial market.
Rapid economic growth over the years, is creating more and more of the new rich. Last October, the Bank of China issued the white paper on China's private wealth management pointed out that the 2011 national do Fortune population growth 9.7%, 960,000 people.
Is uneven with it, the current high-end relatively narrow financing channels in China, 60% of high net worth population concentrated in stocks, real estate and investment projects on local and foreign currency deposits, which 3 areas are faced with challenges of the internal and external environment.
Economic climate as one of the uncertainties. "Steady growth, adjusting structure" guided, the economy as a whole is growing independently by policy stimuli to shift, progressive tightening of liquidity in the market, capital market hit, making wealth management markets face more challenges.
In accordance with the National Bureau of statistics, in November last year, China's CPI rose 4.2%, hit 14-month low, but still larger future inflationary pressures.
The report believes that regulation under the background of factors such as price rally limited, the stock market downturn of the trend, and wealth management for high net worth crowds put forward higher requirements. At the same time, domestic inflation on private wealth erode as its seeks asset preservation and appreciation of the important reasons.
The report pointed out that the risk awareness as high net worth population grows, will usher in a larger space for development financing institutions in the future, competition will become fierce.
In fact, focusing on traditional investment channels on the basis of, in recent years an increasing number of high net worth individuals begin to pay attention to and investment in private banking, collections, trust, Fund "one to many", sunny private equity, finance, brokerage collection high-end insurance and other financial products. In addition, the trust equity, private equity investments and alternative investments, including works of art have also been favoured by high net worth individuals.
According to the report view, the trend for banks, trust companies, fund management companies, securities firms, insurance companies and other financial institutions to provide a broader space, thus gradually activate this potentially huge market.
Liu Shijin
China now more than ever need to pay attention to reform, through substantive reform, and to transform our growth model to address growth phase change of a variety of challenges brought about by now.
Jia Kang,
Monetary policy actions in November 2011 at least into the preconditioning of conceptual understanding. As far as is not opened the prelude to the so-called monetary policy easing as a whole, but also depending on how the next phase of the world situation changes.
Frank Gong
Current situation of China's capital markets, have not only been reflected the slowing of economic growth, it should be said that also reflects the trend of China's economy might slow further in the next few quarter.
Tan
Debt expiring in 2012 the world's leading economies (plus "the BRICs"), the total is $ 7.6 trillion. 2011 is a high risk of the debt crisis years for debt or not, this means that the debt expiring in 2012 than last year
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