"China's economic growth by the time window for high speed transfer speed may have to open in 2012, the most (are) fear uncertainty, namely the European debt crisis, uncertainty, and uncertainty from the real estate market. ”
Economic growth path
In keynote session, Liu Shijin, Ministry of finance section Jia Kang, Director, Asia Pacific Managing Director, JP Morgan Chase J.P. JPMorgan Chinese Investment Bank Vice President Frank Gong, Chief commentator of each leaf, such as Tan, around China as well as the macro separately elaborated on their views to the overall situation of the world economy.
These experts are of the view that China has now entered a new stage of economic development in the past relied on demographic dividend and high investment-led economic growth momentum is gradually declining, "Twelve-Five" period, China needs to find new growth patterns.
Liu Shijin said that in the area of foreign trade, in 2012, China import and export growth could drop below 10% or a little higher level; investment in fixed assets or by 24% per cent to around total amount of social consumer goods financing real growth rose from 12% to the cent is about annual GDP growth of about 8.5%.
He said that China need to transform the dynamics of economic development and towards innovation-driven. To resolve these problems, the reform of greater importance than ever in China.
Jia Kang, expounded his views on fiscal policy: to continue to make a difference in expenditure, spending outline is focused, taking into account the General, the integrated and coordinated. He said, with special emphasis on supporting the object includes the construction of new countryside, including small and micro-enterprises and is closely related to the livelihood of some of the major issues and so on.
He also emphasized that education, must meet the Government's investment in this year 4% per cent of GDP target, new reforms to promote the necessary financial support, fiscal policy should be as focused.
Frank Gong, long-term study of the financial sector believes that China's economy for years to come, "eight" is not a problem, but rely on investment economic growth relies on promotion of consumer services, as well as the so-called creative industries development and refinement of the increased economic development, which is dependent on investment and financing needs change.
He explained that in China, if you do not have bank loans this so-called indirect financing channels, companies even the basic operations are difficult to maintain. So is urgent to develop the capital market in China, many things have to securitization, but also to accelerate the process of securitization.
In the pre-2012 year China and the world economic situation, Tan has maintained her usual cold wisdom. She recalled that in 2011 and 2012 keywords still is the debt crisis, "debt of the world's leading economies that are due in the near future, with BRIC, a total of US $ 7.6 trillion. This means more debt due this year than last year, also shows increasing our debt burden. ”
When referring to the thorny issues facing China, Tan also mentioned the risk of commercial real estate. She said that the end of 2011, many commercial real estate financial returns simply not enough to cover costs, "I believe that 2012 commercial real estate bubble risk will emerge. ”
High-end financial future
At yesterday's annual Conference, published by the daily economic news combined with xinancaijingdaxue the 2011 China's high-end financial market report (hereinafter referred to as the report) pointed out that as economic uncertainty and risk awareness grows, good prospects for future high-end financial market.
Rapid economic growth over the years, is creating more and more of the new rich. Last October, the Bank of China issued the white paper on China's private wealth management pointed out that the 2011 national do Fortune population growth 9.7%, 960,000 people.
Is uneven with it, the current high-end relatively narrow financing channels in China, 60% of high net worth population concentrated in stocks, real estate and investment projects on local and foreign currency deposits, which 3 areas are faced with challenges of the internal and external environment.
Economic climate as one of the uncertainties. "Steady growth, adjusting structure" guided, the economy as a whole is growing independently by policy stimuli to shift, progressive tightening of liquidity in the market, capital market hit, making wealth management markets face more challenges.
In accordance with the National Bureau of statistics, in November last year, China's CPI rose 4.2%, hit 14-month low, but still larger future inflationary pressures.
The report believes that regulation under the background of factors such as price rally limited, the stock market downturn of the trend, and wealth management for high net worth crowds put forward higher requirements. At the same time, domestic inflation on private wealth erode as its seeks asset preservation and appreciation of the important reasons.
The report pointed out that the risk awareness as high net worth population grows, will usher in a larger space for development financing institutions in the future, competition will become fierce.
In fact, focusing on traditional investment channels on the basis of, in recent years an increasing number of high net worth individuals begin to pay attention to and investment in private banking, collections, trust, Fund "one to many", sunny private equity, finance, brokerage collection high-end insurance and other financial products. In addition, the trust equity, private equity investments and alternative investments, including works of art have also been favoured by high net worth individuals.
According to the report view, the trend for banks, trust companies, fund management companies, securities firms, insurance companies and other financial institutions to provide a broader space, thus gradually activate this potentially huge market.
Liu Shijin
China now more than ever need to pay attention to reform, through substantive reform, and to transform our growth model to address growth phase change of a variety of challenges brought about by now.
Jia Kang,
Monetary policy actions in November 2011 at least into the preconditioning of conceptual understanding. As far as is not opened the prelude to the so-called monetary policy easing as a whole, but also depending on how the next phase of the world situation changes.
Frank Gong
Current situation of China's capital markets, have not only been reflected the slowing of economic growth, it should be said that also reflects the trend of China's economy might slow further in the next few quarter.
Tan
Debt expiring in 2012 the world's leading economies (plus "the BRICs"), the total is $ 7.6 trillion. 2011 is a high risk of the debt crisis years for debt or not, this means that the debt expiring in 2012 than last year
Saturday, January 7, 2012
China play a positive role in the development of the Asian economic
In 2011, the international economic environment is not stable, uncertainties increased considerably under the background of China mutually beneficial cooperation in the promotion of economic growth in Asian countries, had played an active role.
Liu Zhenmin day said in an interview with a Xinhua reporter, current, deeper effects are still fermenting in the international financial crisis, global economic and financial situation is not optimistic. In the further development of economic globalization era, and in any country can protect themselves, the need to strengthen cooperation, and seek common development. China upholds the spirit of unity, cooperation, mutual benefit and win-win situation, together with the Asian countries, welcome the challenge, and promoting cooperation, and strive to achieve common development.
He said that trade with China and Asian countries look good. January 2011, China's trade with Asian countries amounted to us $ 965.2 billion, an increase of 21%. $ 530.1 billion imports from Asian countries, an increase of 18.7%, export reached $ 435.1 billion, an increase of 23.9%. China maintained the country's largest export market in Asia, continue to be North Korea, Mongolia, and Japan, and Korea, and Viet Nam, and Malaysia, and India's largest trading partner. Structure of China's trade with Asian countries continues to be optimized to achieve the shift from primary commodities to manufactured, especially high-tech products increasingly larger share of trade promotion.
He said that China's rapid growth in investment in Asian countries. By November 2011, the China national non-financial direct investment in Asia amounted to us $ 18.03 billion. Asia Chinese enterprises ' "going out" of the most concentrated areas. Are Burma, Cambodia, China, Korea, Mongolia and other countries the largest source of foreign investment. China will also build a zone of economic and trade cooperation in ASEAN countries, through the cluster investment to improve economic and trade cooperation.
Said Liu Zhenmin, China smoothly push forward the construction of free trade with Asian countries. China-ASEAN free trade area in 2010, since full implementation runs smoothly, both funds, resources, technologies and talents flow efficiency of production factors such as the significant increase in economic and trade ties are more active. 2011 1 China-ASEAN trade amounted to $ 328.965 billion, an increase of 25.1%, ASEAN jumped for the country's third-largest trading partner. Japan-Korea free trade area in industry-university joint research on track. Japan to co-sponsor accelerate East Asia free trade area and the construction of the comprehensive economic partnership in East Asia initiative. China countries such as Korea and India and is also active in promoting free trade negotiations.
Said Liu Zhenmin, China financial cooperation with Asian countries is deepening. In 2011, respectively, with Thailand, Pakistan, Mongolia, 70 billion, $ 5 billion RMB signed bilateral currency swap agreements, China and South Korea bilateral swap size to 360 billion yuan. China signed a series of bilateral currency swap agreements with Asian countries amounted to 775 billion yuan. Industrial and commercial bank, China UnionPay financial institutions such as Laos, Singapore, Pakistan, India and other countries to establish branch offices, developing financial business.
Said Liu Zhenmin, China and Asian countries active in areas of high technology and new energy sources and energy saving and environmental protection cooperation. Caofeidian eco-industrial parks in China and Japan and Lianyungang eco-industrial park of science and technology projects to take pace, new (Singapore) eco-city project is progressing. Th Sino-Japanese energy-saving environmental protection integrated Forum and first Green Expo in China and Japan reached a number of cooperation agreements. Japan and South Korea to strengthen cooperation in the field of renewable energy and energy efficiency. China and North Korea officially launched "two economic area" construction, with Singapore, and Viet Nam, Cambodia and other countries to promote the knowledge city, regional, economic and trade cooperation projects such as food.
He said that China's efforts to intensify assistance to Asian countries. In March 2011, Japan earthquakes, tsunamis and nuclear triple disaster, China gave Japan provided emergency aid and 20,000 RMB 30 million tons of fuel aid. Thailand, Cambodia once in a blue moon floods occurred, the Chinese Government provided supplies and foreign exchange rates, assistance in a timely manner, to send expert team to Thailand to provide disaster relief consulting. North Korea, Korea, Philippines, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and other countries after the disaster has occurred, the Chinese Government and the Red Cross also provided humanitarian assistance in a timely manner. China continues to Nepal, Laos, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and other less developed countries to provide assistance or technical training, helping countries to improve the level of self-reliance.
Liu Zhenmin said that, in addition, China is also committed to advancing with the Asian countries in road, rail, telecommunications, ports and other infrastructure interoperability in the field of construction. In 2009, China promised $ 15 billion credit on the basis of an additional US $ 10 billion loan to support ASEAN interconnection projects such as infrastructure construction for the benefit of all ASEAN countries.
Liu Zhenmin day said in an interview with a Xinhua reporter, current, deeper effects are still fermenting in the international financial crisis, global economic and financial situation is not optimistic. In the further development of economic globalization era, and in any country can protect themselves, the need to strengthen cooperation, and seek common development. China upholds the spirit of unity, cooperation, mutual benefit and win-win situation, together with the Asian countries, welcome the challenge, and promoting cooperation, and strive to achieve common development.
He said that trade with China and Asian countries look good. January 2011, China's trade with Asian countries amounted to us $ 965.2 billion, an increase of 21%. $ 530.1 billion imports from Asian countries, an increase of 18.7%, export reached $ 435.1 billion, an increase of 23.9%. China maintained the country's largest export market in Asia, continue to be North Korea, Mongolia, and Japan, and Korea, and Viet Nam, and Malaysia, and India's largest trading partner. Structure of China's trade with Asian countries continues to be optimized to achieve the shift from primary commodities to manufactured, especially high-tech products increasingly larger share of trade promotion.
He said that China's rapid growth in investment in Asian countries. By November 2011, the China national non-financial direct investment in Asia amounted to us $ 18.03 billion. Asia Chinese enterprises ' "going out" of the most concentrated areas. Are Burma, Cambodia, China, Korea, Mongolia and other countries the largest source of foreign investment. China will also build a zone of economic and trade cooperation in ASEAN countries, through the cluster investment to improve economic and trade cooperation.
Said Liu Zhenmin, China smoothly push forward the construction of free trade with Asian countries. China-ASEAN free trade area in 2010, since full implementation runs smoothly, both funds, resources, technologies and talents flow efficiency of production factors such as the significant increase in economic and trade ties are more active. 2011 1 China-ASEAN trade amounted to $ 328.965 billion, an increase of 25.1%, ASEAN jumped for the country's third-largest trading partner. Japan-Korea free trade area in industry-university joint research on track. Japan to co-sponsor accelerate East Asia free trade area and the construction of the comprehensive economic partnership in East Asia initiative. China countries such as Korea and India and is also active in promoting free trade negotiations.
Said Liu Zhenmin, China financial cooperation with Asian countries is deepening. In 2011, respectively, with Thailand, Pakistan, Mongolia, 70 billion, $ 5 billion RMB signed bilateral currency swap agreements, China and South Korea bilateral swap size to 360 billion yuan. China signed a series of bilateral currency swap agreements with Asian countries amounted to 775 billion yuan. Industrial and commercial bank, China UnionPay financial institutions such as Laos, Singapore, Pakistan, India and other countries to establish branch offices, developing financial business.
Said Liu Zhenmin, China and Asian countries active in areas of high technology and new energy sources and energy saving and environmental protection cooperation. Caofeidian eco-industrial parks in China and Japan and Lianyungang eco-industrial park of science and technology projects to take pace, new (Singapore) eco-city project is progressing. Th Sino-Japanese energy-saving environmental protection integrated Forum and first Green Expo in China and Japan reached a number of cooperation agreements. Japan and South Korea to strengthen cooperation in the field of renewable energy and energy efficiency. China and North Korea officially launched "two economic area" construction, with Singapore, and Viet Nam, Cambodia and other countries to promote the knowledge city, regional, economic and trade cooperation projects such as food.
He said that China's efforts to intensify assistance to Asian countries. In March 2011, Japan earthquakes, tsunamis and nuclear triple disaster, China gave Japan provided emergency aid and 20,000 RMB 30 million tons of fuel aid. Thailand, Cambodia once in a blue moon floods occurred, the Chinese Government provided supplies and foreign exchange rates, assistance in a timely manner, to send expert team to Thailand to provide disaster relief consulting. North Korea, Korea, Philippines, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and other countries after the disaster has occurred, the Chinese Government and the Red Cross also provided humanitarian assistance in a timely manner. China continues to Nepal, Laos, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and other less developed countries to provide assistance or technical training, helping countries to improve the level of self-reliance.
Liu Zhenmin said that, in addition, China is also committed to advancing with the Asian countries in road, rail, telecommunications, ports and other infrastructure interoperability in the field of construction. In 2009, China promised $ 15 billion credit on the basis of an additional US $ 10 billion loan to support ASEAN interconnection projects such as infrastructure construction for the benefit of all ASEAN countries.
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